Initial Unemployment Claims and the Economic Cycle: The Case of Barbados

Author(s): Belgrave, Anton; Thomas, Chrystol; Maynard, Tracy; (2010)

Created 26 Jul, 2010
Categories Working Papers
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Initial unemployment claims is one of the key leading indicators of the economic cycle. Yet little work has been done on examining the importance of this variable in the Caribbean. This study attempts to rectify this by utilising a VAR model to investigate the relationship between initial unemployment claims and several key economic variables: the unemployment rate, gross domestic product and inflation. It also considers whether initial unemployment claims improves the forecasting performance of key macroeconomic indicators. Given the relatively higher frequency of initial claims data, it provides useful insight in forecasting both the unemployment rate and output.

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