Modelling the Volatility of Long-Stay Tourist Arrivals to Barbados

Author(s): Lorde, Troy; Moore, Winston (2006)

Created 01 Jan, 2006
Categories Working Papers
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Although volatility is an important characteristic of tourism economies, it has not received a lot of attention from regional researchers. Volatility in monthly tourist arrivals are primarily due to unanticipated events, such as natural disasters, crime, the threat of terrorism, and business cycles in tourist source countries. This study exploits recent modelling techniques to measure and investigate the volatility in monthly international tourist arrivals for Barbados. The results show that the volatility of tourist arrivals to Barbados is asymmetric: positive shocks have a differential impact on future volatility than negative shocks. There is also some evidence of short-run volatility persistence.

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