MODELLING AND FORECASTING TOURIST FLOWS TO BARBADOS USING STRUCTURAL TIME SERIES MODELS

Author(s): Greenidge, Kevin; Jackman, Mahalia; (2009)

Created 27 Jul, 2009
Categories Working Papers
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This paper updates the work of Greenidge (2001), employing structural time series models (STSM) to explain and forecast quarterly tourist flows from Barbados’ primary source markets – the USA, the UK, Canada and CARICOM – for the period 1966:1- 2007:4. Our main goal is to determine if inferences made in 2001 still hold. Results show that the structure and nature of the tourist arrivals series have evolved somewhat since the work of Greenidge (2001). Of particular interest, arrivals from the main source markets appear to be less income sensitive. The study also investigates the predictive power of STSM. A seasonal naïve model is used for benchmark comparison purposes. We find that STSM outperform the seasonal naïve model in its both multivariate and univariate form.

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