Modelling tourism demand from major international markets to the ECCU

The aim of the paper is to examine the nature of tourism demand in the major non-banana producing countries (Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, and St Kitts and Nevis) in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) from three of its main international markets: the USA, Canada and the UK. The paper uses regression analysis with time series data (1990 to 2003) to estimate the quantitative relationship between the level of visitor arrivals to these countries and some hypothesised determinants. The results show that visitors to St Kitts and Nevis are most sensitive to tourism price, followed by income. Barbados, Bahamas, Jamaica, Dominican Republic and Mexico (as a composite group) are substitute destinations for visitors from the main international markets travelling to St Kitts and Nevis. Visitors to Antigua and Barbuda are most sensitive to income (using the visitor expenditure approach). UK and Canadian visitors are most sensitive to the five composite substitute destinations to Antigua and Barbuda. Visitors to Anguilla are most sensitive to price. UK visitors are most sensitive to the five-composite substitute destinations to Anguilla.