The measurement and interpretation of leading tourism statistics in Barbados, using a model of tourism expenditure/GDP

"This paper highlights some of the problems with tourism statistics in Barbados, particularly the estimate of tourism expenditure, believed to be overestimated. Using a model of Tourism Expenditure/GDP the estimates of expenditure derived were found to be far lower than the official estimate; in addition the new estimates exhibit the same cyclical pattern as tourism bank receipts (as reported by CBB Exchange Control but lagged one month for comparability). Since tourism expenditure is used as a basis for ""travel receipts"", balance of payments credits would also be overstated. When these estimates are substituted into the Balance of Payments accounts, the result is an accelerated negative increase in the balance of current and capital flows in the recession and post-recession period (1981-87); this trend is consistent with the trend in debt services and probably shows a more realistic picture of the weakness of the economy. However, the adjustment increases the Errors & Omissions in the post-recession period, perhaps indicating that unexplained inflows occurred. (Previous title: Collection of unpublished research papers. (This paper was prepared for presentation at the Annual Review Seminar of the Research Department, Central Bank of Barbados, June 29-30, 1988)"