||Central Bank Of Barbados
Tourism is the most important economic activity in many Caribbean countries including Barbados. The forecast of tourism is the key to the forecast of overall macroeconomic performance in these countries. The studies which provide some empirical basis for such forecasts - Belchere (1988), IMF (1992), Rosensweig and Clark (1988), Wood and Worrell (1986), Whitehall and Greenidge (1966) - all focus on the demand side of the market. The present study extends their analysis by incorporating supply factors. It also introduces a multivariate technique to estimate the model. Presented at the 17th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting Hilton International, Barbados June 19-21, 1997.